Minister books a flight to ‘la la land’ with plan to remove passenger cap
Oisín Coghlan analyses what the removal of the Dublin Airport passenger cap means for the State’s climate goals.
The Oireachtas passed a bill in July 2026 to allow the Minister for Transport, Darragh O’Brien TD, to alter or remove the Dublin Airport passenger cap. At the time Minister O’Brien said he planned to do this “as soon as possible”, and in August 2026, the Dublin Airport Authority (DAA) formally requested the Minister to increase the cap from 32 million passengers a year to 40 million, a figure it expects to reach by 2030. But what does this mean for Ireland’s climate goals?
Dublin Airport is Ireland’s single largest producer of climate-changing pollution. According to analysis by UCC, aviation accounted for 6 per cent (3.3 million tonnes) of Ireland’s total emissions in 2024, equivalent to around half of all emissions from power generation. Dublin Airport is responsible for around 85 per cent of this figure, equivalent to the pollution from 1.4 million cars according to An Taisce.
DAA itself has said that raising the passenger cap to 40 million would increase the airport’s climate pollution by 24 per cent, equivalent to the pollution from heating 250,000 homes.
A September 2026 report by the Brussels-based think tank T&E for Opportunity Green found that Dublin’s longer-term expansion plans would make it the third worst-performing airport from a climate perspective among 20 major European airports. Its polluting emissions would rise by two-thirds by 2050.
T&E calculated what the fair share carbon budget for each airport is to be aligned with Paris Agreement climate commitments. Dublin Airport will use up its entire carbon budget by 2034 and overshoot it 2.6 times by 2050.
DAA’s response to this report was telling. “These carbon budgets do not exist,” they told RTÉ’s George Lee. They are not contesting the accuracy of the analysis, rather they can ignore this reality because nobody with power is planning to make them act in line with the Paris Agreement.
Of course, the person with most immediate power over them is Minister O’Brien. But rather than insisting DAA reduce emissions, he fast-tracked a law to make it easier for them to increase emissions.
This is despite the fact he is not only the Minister for Transport, but also the Minister for Climate, Energy and the Environment, currently chairing the EU Council of Ministers as they begin negotiations on how to meet the EU’s target of reducing emissions by 90 per cent by 2040. And the Minister is co-hosting next year’s second Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels conference with Tuvalu.
Commenting on this contradiction, Sorcha Tunney of Opportunity Green said recently: “Ireland cannot credibly claim climate leadership while simultaneously planning for continued growth in aviation emissions.
“How can Ireland, as President of the Council, credibly ask Europe to demonstrate greater climate ambition while facilitating aviation expansion at home without a plan for the emissions that expansion will generate?”
I am sure Minister O’Brien would be quick to point out that aviation emissions are not included in our national carbon budget. But they are covered by the climate law’s overall objective of climate neutrality by 2050 at the latest. Otherwise, why would the Minister have included a provision in the passenger cap bill to disapply section 15 of the climate law?
This is a particularly cynical move, and almost delusional. It means the decision to remove the passenger cap cannot be challenged under the climate law, but the Government is still responsible for the resulting emissions under the law’s general objective.
It suggests the Minister knows he is doing the wrong thing, but does not want the courts to be able to tell him that. It is like he is removing the cap with the stroke of a pen, and then putting his fingers in his ears, and going “la la la la la la”.
Oisín Coghlan is a public policy advisor and commentator, specialising in climate and environment.
