The left’s landslide: Catherine Connolly heading to the Áras

The election of Catherine Connolly as the 10th Uachtarán na hÉireann has the potential to trigger a political realignment in Irish politics and demonstrates an electorate which is dissatisfied with the political establishment, writes Joshua Murray.

Catherine Connolly, the left-wing Galway West TD, has not only won the presidency; she has secured a larger mandate by number of votes than any political candidate or party in the history of the State. She won 914,143 votes, representing 63 per cent of the total, the largest popular vote margin since the presidency was established in 1938. The number of votes beats the record set by Fianna Fáil in 2007 for the largest number of votes in either a presidential or general election campaign.

This achievement is attributable to a number of factors, the first being Connolly’s political capabilities. While the narrative surrounding her victory has been one of a ‘united left’ coalition, comprising Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Labour, People Before Profit, and the Green Party, Connolly’s decision to declare early has proved decisive in the chain of events.

By declaring early, Connolly, who will take office on 11 November 2025, was able to secure a nomination while bypassing the need for Sinn Féin’s initial support, ensuring that she was a serious candidate in this election while forcing Sinn Féin into a corner.

Secondly, while Sinn Féin bided its time in choosing to support Connolly, its decision to do so was, as party leader Mary Lou McDonald TD said at the time, “a gamechanger”. With the apparatus and support of the biggest political party on this island, Connolly was presented as a unifier with the ability to unite the unlikeliest of opponents in one pursuit: defeating Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

FF and FG fallout

Speaking of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the election of Connolly is also the culmination of disaster classes in running an election by the two government parties. For Fianna Fáil, Micheál Martin TD faces a fight for his leadership in November 2025, as RTÉ has reported that 10 of the 12 TDs needed to trigger a motion of confidence in his leadership have done so. This follows Martin using all of his political capital to pressure his parliamentary party into nominating the inept Jim Gavin as its nominee.

Gavin was a disaster for Fianna Fáil from the beginning, with his nomination demonstrating a clear divide in the party after 40 per cent of the parliamentary party voted against the leadership to nominate MEP Billy Kelleher for the presidency. Once he hit the campaign trail, the former Dublin GAA manager suffered a series of gaffes with his campaign, and was victim to a number of smears about his personal life on social media.

A presidential campaign can be a place where political newcomers can thrive, with Mary McAleese being the most famous example in modern times. However, Gavin’s maladroit mannerisms and insipid debate performances put him on unsteady footing. The ground went from under Gavin when it emerged that he had not paid back €3,300 owed to a former tenant; which he has now paid back. This culminated in the ludicrous situation where he dropped out of the race but remained on the ballot. Martin is now left to pick through the bones of a damaging campaign where Fianna Fáil wasted up to €500,000 running in an election it did not actively contest, and faces the fight for his life as party leader.

For Fine Gael, it was barely any better. There was enthusiasm at the beginning of the campaign when former European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness was unveiled as the party’s candidate. However, McGuinness quickly and unexpectedly dropped out, reportedly for health reasons, and party leader Simon Harris TD pushed for Heather Humphreys to be the candidate, with MEP and former GAA president Seán Kelly dismissed by Harris on two occasions as a potential candidate.

Humphreys was a capable candidate who could have had a fascinating case to make as an Ulster Protestant, however, she was unable to inspire voters in this campaign and, amid flailing poll numbers, turned to Trumpian negative campaigning against her left-wing opponent.

While the negative campaign regarding Connolly’s background as a barrister, her association with former TDs Mick Wallace and Clare Daly, and attempts to paint her as ‘pro-Putin’ caught the attention of the electorate, they failed to persuade voters that Humphreys would be the ‘president for all’ given that this campaign was alienating the very people who voted for the winning candidate.

While Harris is seemingly not facing the same kind of leadership pressure as his Fianna Fáil counterpart, this election is the latest in a string of poor election results for Fine Gael. An election which was presented to it on a plate has resulted in emphatic rejection.

Spoilt votes

Turnout in this election was up slightly from the 2018 vote, when Michael D Higgins won a landslide victory as a popular incumbent and right-wing independent Peter Casey shocked observers by polling a respectable second place with 23 per cent of the vote. There was no right-wing candidate in this election, after barrister Maria Steen was denied entry to the ballot having failed to win the necessary number of nominations.

In Steen’s absence, an online ‘spoil your vote’ campaign emerged and is arguably the secondary winner of this election, with 213,738 (around 12.9 per cent) votes spoilt, mostly with messages pertaining to either support for Steen or anti-immigration sentiments. It would be dangerous to overplay the significance of this, with the ‘spoil the vote’ campaigning significantly underperforming Peter Casey’s performance in 2018, and other right-wing independents (most significantly, Dana Rosemary Scallon in 1997) having gained respectable votes before failing to organise a right-wing political movement.

Nevertheless, the results show that there is a gap in the market of Irish politics, with the left united in an unprecedented manner, and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil perceived as liberal parties by a significant portion of the electorate. This gap will be of concern to the two government parties, as it stands to reason that a significant portion of votes for a right-wing candidate would have subsequently transferred to their parties. This would not have been enough to prevent Connolly’s victory, but would have undoubtedly made the result closer.

‘Difference-maker’

While all of these factors are of interest, arguably the most important factor in this victory for Catherine Connolly has been Connolly herself. Her ability to score the biggest mandate in the history of the State demonstrates all of the Galway West TD’s political skills, both as a personality and strategist. By outmaneuvering Sinn Féin, uniting republicans, socialists and social democrats, and responding strongly under pressure to robust questioning, Connolly herself was the difference-maker in this election.

Furthermore, this result will be perceived as an endorsement for neutrality, support for a stronger stance by the Government on the Gaza genocide, and a stand against the Government on housing, with the president-elect’s promise to “use my voice when necessary” now having a mandate.

Overall, there are fundamental questions for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael to face with challenges both to their left and right, and a clear lesson for the left: when united, it is possible to comprehensively defeat Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in a national election.

The left has shown that it can unite around a personality. The bigger question is whether this ‘united left’ coalition which has delivered this result can translate this spirit of cooperation into a general election campaign.