UK minister outlines criteria for united Ireland referendum

In an interview with eolas Magazine’s Joshua Murray in April 2025, the UK Government’s Northern Ireland Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Fleur Anderson MP, stated that opinion polls will determine when a referendum on Irish reunification will be called.

Since the interview was first published in agendaNi in mid-April 2025, the Northern Ireland Office (NIO) reportedly told the Belfast Telegraph that “responsibility for a referendum sits solely with the Secretary of State”, a statement which has been broadly perceived as the NIO backtracking on Anderson’s remarks.

In a subsequent press conference on 24 April 2025, Secretary of State Hilary Benn MP told reporters: “There is only one criterion relating to a border poll, and it is extremely clearly laid out in the Good Friday Agreement.”

The legislation underpinning the calling of a border poll is the Northern Ireland Act 1998. It states that the Secretary of State “shall exercise the power [to hold a referendum] if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”.

However, the specific means by which unification could “appear” likely to a Secretary of State are famously ambiguous. When asked about this, Anderson said that for the Secretary of State to make that decision, “there would have to be some backup to it”, adding: “It would be based on opinion polls of the general public.”

Anderson further specified that opinion polls would take precedence over “the number of politicians” in reference to Sinn Féin now being the largest party in the North.

These remarks were cautiously welcomed by Sinn Féin, but condemned as “disgraceful” by the DUP.

Since the UK left the European Union, there has been a significant rise in support for Irish reunification in the North. A February 2025 LucidTalk/Belfast Telegraph poll shows support for unification at 41 per cent, with 48 per cent in favour of remaining part of the UK. Before Brexit, a 2013 poll for the BBC’s Spotlight programme showed support for unification to be 13 per cent.

For context, when the UK Government agreed to hold an independence referendum in Scotland, support for Scottish independence averaged at 27 per cent.

Anderson, a Labour MP representing a southwest London constituency, also remarked that she was “not sure” if she is a unionist, adding: “I do not think I would be. I am not one community or another. I am not one side or another.”

However, when asked if she favours Northern Ireland remaining part of the United Kingdom, she said: “Yes, I think the union is a strong way of supporting everyone across the United Kingdom.”

Former Ulster Unionist leader Robin Swann MP subsequently raised these remarks in Prime Minister’s Questions on 23 April 2025, asking UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer MP “if he [Starmer] is a unionist”. In his response, Starmer did not acknowledge whether he is a unionist, instead asserting that “the Good Friday Agreement was one of the proudest achievements of the last Labour government”.

While there are signs that the UK Government is beginning to soften its stance on the calling of a border poll, calls for a referendum have been dismissed by Taoiseach Micheál Martin, who told the Belfast Telegraph in April 2025: “We’re not planning for a border poll in 2030.” The Taoiseach further refused to outline whether he hopes a united Ireland will have occurred by 2075.