Economy: An overview
Tuesday, February 7th, 2012Exports, agriculture and inward investment are Ireland’s main economic successes but unemployment, emigration and low consumer demand are holding back growth. 2012 commenced on a positive note for Ireland, with news that the State is due to cut its deficit to 10.0 per cent, bettering the troika’s 10.6 per cent target. A 1.8 per cent fall in GDP since 2010, though, suggests that the overall economic situation is still fragile. Preliminary CSO statistics show a 9 per cent increase in exports of goods (unadjusted) between November 2010 and November 2011. During January-October...[full story]
Economy: The euro crisis
Tuesday, February 7th, 2012The future of the euro, and Ireland’s place in it, remains uncertain. Stephen Dineen looks at the country’s currency options. Depending on the outcome of the euro crisis, Ireland has four main currency options. It could stay in the economic and monetary union, quit the euro and establish an independent currency, or quit the euro and establish a currency linked to sterling or several currencies. Staying in the euro is seen by many economists as beneficial because it provides Ireland with currency stability, lower business costs and cheaper borrowing (through lower interest rates)....[full story]
Economy: Triple A shocks
Tuesday, February 7th, 2012The causes of the Great Recession risk being repeated, Patrick Love contends, as he reviews the downturn. Globalisation multiplies the effect of new shocks in a way never seen previously. Financial crises and recessions are nothing unusual. There were 195 stock market crashes and 84 depressions between 1860 and 2006. However, the 2007 crisis marks a turning point in that for the first time the entire world was affected. The trigger was the collapse of Lehmans, which called into question one of the unspoken assumptions of global finance: some banks are too big to fail. This assumption...[full story]
Economy: EU-IMF Update
Tuesday, February 7th, 2012The Government met its Q4 2011 targets and banking restructuring continues. eolas looks at the latest developments. The ECB-EC-IMF troika was in Dublin from 10-19 January for its fifth review of the bailout programme’s implementation. It concluded that the programme is “on track” but with no room for complacency. The 2011 general government deficit target of 10.6 per cent was not only met, but surpassed at 10.0 per cent. The two pillar banks (AIB and Bank of Ireland) met their 2011 deleveraging targets, selling €15 billion worth of assets at “at a better price than anticipated,”...[full story]
Finance: Consumer laws reformed
Tuesday, February 7th, 2012The Central Bank has strengthened protections for financial institution customers, and consumer law reform is planned by the Government. eolas outlines some of the changes. Protection for customers of banks, insurance and investment companies, and intermediaries was strengthened in January through a revised consumer protection code. It is the first major revision of the code since it first came into effect in January 2006. The Central Bank has also increased staffing in consumer protection. The code includes several significant changes, such as: stricter affordability testing regarding...[full story]
Public affairs: John McGuinness on the Public Accounts Committee
Tuesday, February 7th, 2012Public Accounts Committee Chairman John McGuinness talks to Stephen Dineen about its work, a possible banking inquiry and public service reform. For John McGuinness, who was previously a member of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) between 2002 and 2007, the workload has “increased dramatically” and “there is a huge amount of public commentary now” through phone calls and letters, both anonymous and named. The committee, which examines the Comptroller and Auditor General’s audits and value for money reports on public bodies, is “poorly resourced,” with three people staffing...[full story]
Cover story: Lucinda Crieghton on Europe’s democratic legitimacy
Monday, February 6th, 2012Minister of State for European Affairs Lucinda Creighton discusses the Dáil’s shortcomings and her belief that the European Union has become “the vehicle for Ireland to express its sovereignty” with Meadhbh Monahan. European affairs are “no longer foreign affairs, they are domestic affairs,” according to Minister of State Lucinda Creighton. European policy “has to be central to everything that, not just the Government, but the Parliament does, because everything that we do in this country now has a very important bearing on European politics and vice-versa,” she...[full story]
Politics: Progress on EU-IMF deal
Wednesday, November 9th, 2011eolas examines what the Government successfully concluded in Q3 of the EU-IMF programme and what is expected in the final quarter of 2011. With the Government’s medium-term fiscal statement announced, five important fiscal documents remain to be published this year. On 10 November the Government will publish its capital review, followed by an expenditure reform plan one week later. This will include a medium-term expenditure framework and reform measures guided by the comprehensive review of expenditure. The comprehensive review of expenditure and multi-annual expenditure ceilings for...[full story]
Politics: Referenda – a look at future referenda
Wednesday, November 9th, 2011With two referenda conducted, the Programme for Government commits to four more. Stephen Dineen examines trends in October’s results and the Government’s plans. One referendum proposal was accepted and another rejected on 27 October. While the proposed constitutional convention will examine specific constitutional provisions, four referendums are expected through Programme for Government commitments. Children’s referendum A referendum on children’s rights is expected in 2012 after five years of deliberation on proposed wording. In February 2007 the then government published a...[full story]
Economy: Fiscal forecasts
Wednesday, November 9th, 2011In advance of Budget 2012, Meadhbh Monahan reports from the ESRI’s annual budget perspectives event, where economists debated the case for increasing the forthcoming adjustment and the need for certainty in the Government’s fiscal strategy. John McHale Chair of the Fiscal Advisory Council The fiscal stance, as outlined in the April 2011 stability programme update (SPU), is to reach a general government deficit to GDP ratio of below 3 per cent by 2015. It was judged as “broadly appropriate” when McHale and his four colleagues first began their work. The SPU estimated that budget...[full story]
